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THE YUGOSLAV VELVET REVOLUTION
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| Last update 18 Dec. 2003 |
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| Boston Globe Online |
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Force of arms helped free Yugoslavia; now we must aid new president
By Wesley K. Clark, 10/11/2000
After the upheaval on October 5 2000 Vojislav Kostunica was recognized as the new President of Yugoslavia
In the midst of the upheaval, several people called to ask how I felt. Was I vindicated? Does this show that action motivated by democratic and humanitarian ideas can be effective? Can we pull out the troops now?
It was a difficult 15 months from March 1998, when Milosevic's police murdered the Jashari family in Drenica, through the end of the air campaign in June 1999. NATO leaders struggled with the ambiguous situation on the ground and the reluctance of governments to take up another mission in former Yugoslavia. But we knew that we had to act, that we could not wait three more years to react to the emerging crisis in Kosovo.
We had no road map to guide us. There was no way to secure a direct, unambiguous UN Security Council resolution over the objections of Russia and China. There was great reluctance to encourage the formation of an independent Kosovo. And among military leaders, as always, there was a disinclination to take the first step in threatening the use of force without knowing what the last step may be.
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| Zoran Djindjic played an active role in organizing the street rebellion |
After 78 days of bombing, with the ground forces starting to arrive and the logistics prepared, we had generated enough coercive pressure to crack Milosevic's will. He gave in to NATO, and we witnessed the largest spontaneous return of refugees in Europe since World War II.
The NATO air campaign was the fourth of four wars that Serbia fought and lost within a decade. This war deepened the contradictions within Yugoslavia - the contradictions between Milosevic's claim to be democratic and the repressive policies he implemented, between his advocacy of economic growth and the destruction of the economy he caused, and between the Greater Serbia he espoused and the dismembered, outcast Yugoslavia he led. These contradictions contributed decisively to his failure in the Sept. 24 elections.
I wish we could have conducted the NATO military operation without harming innocent civilians, but it wasn't possible. I don't expect any Serbs to come forward and thank us for bombing them. But there is hope, with President Vojislav Kostunica, that there won't be another Balkan conflict and Yugoslavia can become truly democratic and rejoin the world community.
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This is going to be a tough transition for Yugoslavia. Already we're hearing stories of an attempted takeover of the TV network by some of Milosevic's supporters and other mischief in the ministries. And this is only the beginning.
The truth is that Milosevic was ruling a state that had been criminalized and corrupted. Many decent people lost their livelihoods - and some their lives - resisting him. He created a class of robber barons who lived off the people and masked their activities under the cloaks of law and government. Many of the laws are still on the books. Systems to enforce them are in place. Those who profited are still there. And the habits ingrained in this period will be difficult to erase.
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So Kostunica will have his hands full. Today there are announcements of interim, ''technical'' governments and forthcoming elections in Serbia itself. Sanctions on travel and oil shipments have been lifted. Each day seems to bring more promise. But there is work for a generation here. We have already seen the extent of the efforts required in trying to modernize Bosnia.
International technical assistance is urgently needed to help prevent Milosevic's gang from looting the country and probably to assist in helping gain technical control of several other ministries. In the long term such help will be important to facilitate Yugoslavia's reintegration into the family of nations. And, no, we shouldn't rush to pull our troops out yet, though the opportunities for ultimate success are immeasurably greater with Milosevic out of power.
My hope is that the West will remain engaged in the Balkans to help this vital transition succeed. Hopefully, in the future we will again have the courage to act when our values are threatened and we can make a difference. As for Milosevic, he should ''vacation'' more appropriately, along with his indicted cronies, by standing trial at the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague.
Wesley K. Clark, former NATO supreme commander, is with Stevens Inc. investment bankers.
This story ran on page A19 of the Boston Globe on 10/11/2000.
© Copyright 2000 Globe Newspaper
Company.
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| The Washington Post |
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General Wesley K. Clark, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, was online to talk about Yugoslavia's disputed presidential election on Tuesday, Sept. 26.
Clark was Supreme Allied Commander from July 1997-May 2000, commanding NATO's military forces in Europe. In 1999, he led Operation Allied Force, the response to the Kosovo crisis that was NATO's first major combat action and the largest European air operation since World War II. Clark received the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the United States' highest civilian honor, on Aug. 9, 2000.
Currently, Clark is associated with Stephens Group, Inc., working with high technology venture capital. He serves pro bono as a distinguished senior adviser for the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), a director of the Atlantic Council and a member of the board of the International Crisis Group.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
washingtonpost.com:
Our guest today is General Wesley K. Clark, former NATO commander who oversaw the 1999 air war in Kosovo. He will answer questions about the Yugoslavia's disputed presidential elections and the response of the international community.
washingtonpost.com:
Due to the large volume of questions, Gen. Clark may not be able to respond to all queries
Woodbridge, Virginia:
What is your view on how the West should respond to the elections in Yugoslavia? Are we overstating our support right now? Will Milosevic be emboldened to stay in power in direct proportion to the West stated support for his opponent? The electorate should have seen that it can vote against him with impunity - and be encouraged to vote against him again in any runoff election. What are y
Gen. Wesley Clark: We should be offering to welcome Yugoslavia back into the family of nations, once the regime has changed and appropriate adjustments in polcies have been made. But this outcome of the election is really a matter for the people of Yugoslavia, so we have to watch right now as the situation unfolds. In any event Milosevic won't get much suuport from his people by railing against NATO. I believe they understand that it is he Milosevic who is the source of the collapse of Yugoslavia and of their economy.
Washington, DC: In case of Milosevic not wanting to peacefully step aside and let the democraticly elected candidates (presidential and parliamentary) take over, what is the extent of a possible US military intervention in (again) Serbia? How far would US go this time or would they "tactically" restrain from finishing off the villain like they have in the past (Saddam '91, Milosevic '99)?
Gen. Wesley Clark: NATO will be watching the situation cloesly to ensure the safety of its missions in Bosnia and Kosovo. However, I would not expect any direct intervention inside Serbia to effect Milosevic's surrender of authority. What NATO is concerned about is the stability of the region and the success of its own missions. If Milosevic were to"try something" to create an international crisis, well, then tha's a different situation. he should know vert well what NSATO's capabilities are, and should also recognize some NATO ships in the Adriatic. How far we would go if military action began is impossible to predict, even for Milosevic. But he should recognize that people all over the world have seen enough trouble from his maneuvers. Patience is gone.
Washington, D.C.:
In your opinion, how loyal is the Yugoslav
military to Milosevic at this time? What will
be the deteriming factor for the military to
lose loyality to Milosevic and join the
opposition?
Gen. Wesley Clark: The top rank of the military is probably loyal. The commander, General Pavkovic, is realted by marriage to Milosevic's wife, Mira Markovic. On the other hand, the Armed Forces has been the last institution to fall under the corruption and intimidation of Milosevic. There will be many in the middle ranks of the officer corps who have reservations about him. The Army will be influenced by the popular sentiment. They will not use force against the majority, And the top leaders will be afraid to order it.This means that as the movement for change intensifies, its power will extend even into the armed forces, and perhaps even some of the police.
Charlottesville, Virginia: General, Haven't we painted ourselves into a corner with Milosevic? He knows if he gives up power he faces at best a life sentence in The Hague so he cannot give up. And even if he does we will be stuck supporting his successor who is determined to keep Kosovo. What has been our foriegn policy scheme of maneuver here?
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Washington, DC: Sir,
In your opinion, how should the U.S. and it's NATO allies respond in the event that Milosevic decides to divert domestic attention from the current elections by launching a military offensive against the democratic Montenegrin government? Should NATO respond with the use of force, and if so, how? What are NATO's contingency plans?
Gen. Wesley Clark: Well, I do know some of these plans, at least as they were when I departed the command, so it would be inappropriate to comment on that. But you can be sure that NATO is watching closely. Even though NATO governments aren't today making a lot of specific threats, their policies can "turn on a dime." Milosevic has been surprised before by how fast democratic governments can respond when their interest are threatened. And it's been made clear that regional stability and the survival of the democratic government in Montenegro are improtant Western interests.
Wash, DC:
Will Vojislav Kostunica be any more
friendly to the NATO efforts in Bosnia and
Kosovo?
Gen. Wesley Clark: Good question. He says he opposes NATO and is posturing as a Serb nationalist. But we'll see after he takes office. It's likely that he'll be much more reasonable to deal with thean Milosevic. You see, Milosevic always had a hidden agenda of a greater Serbia, no matter what he did or said. Under Kostunica, Serbia has a much beeter chance of learning to live in peace and with tolerance of its neighbors. So I expect Kostunica to grow and his views to evolve if he takes office, but he will still, and for a long time, relect the nationalist sentiments of many in Serbia.
Washington, DC: Given that his entire career has been about consolidating and retaining power, why does anyone in the west think Milosevic will cede control, even in the face of election results against him? And what are the options for the west if he doesn't?
Gen. Wesley Clark: I think it's going to be tough to get him, to cede control, but he will if he thinks that his life is in danger because his control over the police and his personal security is breaking down. And that will happen if the popular outcry against him is great enough. If the opposition fails to organize and rpesent enough of a challenge to Milosevic's control, then we will be on the sidelines, working to intensify the pressures against brought byu the international community. But I don't foresee any direct effort to impose the results of the election if Milosevic blocks it. This has to be resolved by the people of Serbia. We can't impose a solution here.
New York, NY: I've heard from a friend who was stationed in Kosovo that there is still a strong level of hatred between Serbs and Albanians in the region. Even if Milosevic concedes defeat, is there any real chance that a change in government will alleviate ethnic tensions in Kosovo?
Gen. Wesley Clark: A change in government might help,but in Kososvo there is real distrust and even in some cases hatred between the sides. This has been a nitterly contested land. And it will take years of work for people to accept each other again. Importantly, though that acceptance has to begin with a sense of jsutice having been dione. There are still unaccounted for AAlbanians from last yuea's air campaign,. And.all the Kosovars understand that Milosevic built his power by encouraging ethnic hatred, es[pecially directed agaonst the Albanians. So, don't give up. This place is part of Europe and part of our part of the worls. It willl eventiually modernize its attitudes. And there are no good alternatives.
Mltv.,NJ:
Please give us your overview of U.S. Military
today and your recommendations.
What is the name of your book coming out in
April?
Gen. Wesley Clark: The military has been drawn down and is probably overcommitted and underresourced. The biggest problem, however, is that there is no national consensus as to what their missions should be. This makes every funding efffort a monumental political battle. If we agreee that the US has to stay engaged in the world, and that sometimes the military has to be called on as a last resort, even short of war, then we should be able to move ahead and get the funding increases and probably the increase in personnel strength that are necessary to operate as actively as were are today. My book should be out in APril and will be entitle Waging Modern War, at least, that's the working title.
Washington, DC: General Clark:
From my understanding, Milosevic can concede defeat this week; however, remain in office until next year. What is the possibility of this and, in turn, him waiting until the democratic "fire" and euphoria to lessen before striking the pro-democracy movement with his military and police?
Gen. Wesley Clark: This is one of many possiblities that Milosevic probab;yis investigating. As a superb manipulator of popular opinion, however, he has to recognize the impact of hiis concession. Even if he were to remain in office, he'll lose power rapidly. He might have increasing difficulty striking against the democracy movement So this may not be a good option as he sees it.
Washington, DC: Sir,
You have personally met with Milosevic on more than one occasion and probably have a better sense of his psyche than I have. In your opinion, to what degree is Milosevic influenced by his wife. My friends in Serbia claim that she is the one who is really in charge and that he makes no decision without consulting with her first. Your thoughts?
Gen. Wesley Clark: I agree with your friends in Sebia. I"ve never met his wife, but even in our discussions, it was clear she carried a loyt of weight. And she is probably seeking outside help from countries like Russia or India, where she has visited in the past, to help her and her husband hold off the weight of the Serbian majority.
Cambridge, Massachusetts: General--Might the emergence of a more moderate Serbian leadership make issues like ultimate sovereignty over Kosovo and the status of the Republika Srpska even more difficult to resolve? It seems that the nature of the Serbian leadership over the past decade has masked some genuinely difficult questions of sovereignty and autonomy.
Gen. Wesley Clark: Well, I would welcome a more moderate leadership. These questions could be resolved with a little give and take, and a keener appreciation of economics. In reality, these countries are all pretty closely bound through their economies and communications systems, road, rail, waterways, etc. More pragmatic leadership always helps in resolving issues like sovereignty. Yes, ther are difficult question, but they can be resolved.
New York, NY: Is it really that unlikely for us to intervene in Serbia if the situation destabilizes? After all, we removed Manuel Noriega in 1989, and we arguably have more of an interest in Balkan stability today than we did in the Panamanian situation 11 years ago.
Gen. Wesley Clark: Well, we didn't intervene lightly in PAnama. And we had substantial historical presence and obligations there. The topography and threat are also different. I just can't see a NATO intervention yet, but if the situation turns chaotic, then other calculations could be made.
Yugoslavia: It was almost usual during during the NATO campaign, to hear that "...action is against Mr. Milosevic's forces...", but the problem was that those forces were filled with me and my friends (19 years..40 years) and we were not Milosevics supporters. We had to be in uniforms and fight. Was it possible to do anything else but to bomb?
Gen. Wesley Clark: Unfortunately, it wasn't possible to do anything but bomb. But you should know that we resisted any idea of a surprise attack which would have caught you and your friends asleep in the barracks. As Javier Solana said, this was never a war against the Serb people. Serbs and Americans always had a good relationship, even Milosevic admitted that to us at Dayton. And General Perisic always spoke of his dream that Yugoslavia would be aligned with the West and participating in PfP, and so forth. Some Yugoslav soldiers rebelled against their commanders and their units collapsed. Others stayed inside the Albanian homes in Kosovo and hoped that the war would end soon. Personally, I'm glad we didn't have to invade on the ground and inflict more casualties. We want to see Yugoslavia resume it historic place in the Western family of nations. I was always impressed when President Gligorov of Macedonia would reflect on his srudent at Belgrade University prior to World War II. He was fluent in French, and the University was culturally part of the West. It could return there quickly, if Milosevic and Mira Markokvic leave.
Panama City, Panama: General Clark:
Do you believe today that had your views (similar to those of British Prime Minister Tony Blair) prevailed on the use of ground troops would they have resulted in different short-term and long-term consequences? ...Granted, I know the political answers.
Gen. Wesley Clark: Possibly a ground action would have impacted the Serb military so heavily that it would have caused the disintegration of Milosevic's power base last year. In the long term, it may be just as well, or even better,if the serbs are avle to choose democracy themselves, without a NATO presence on the ground.
Germantown, MD:
General,
What are the Russians doing right now with regard to Slobodan Milosevic? What will they do?
Gen. Wesley Clark: Ruusia is probably tring to figure out how to support Milosevic without appearing to be anti-democratic. Russia doesn't want a pro-Western government in Belgrade, so if it becomes probable that Kostunica will take over, the expect Moscow to court him vigorously and attempt to establish its grip there.
Bridgewater, MA: Sir,
Although no great fan of bloody-minded dictatorships, I watched with dismay as NATO and its allies bombed a sovereign country into changing its domestic policies. However, as an Indian, I find your recent comment about India's involvement in keeping Milosevic in power, far more troubling. How do you suppose a foreign government/power like India might help him (Milosevic) keep up the charade?
Gen. Wesley Clark: All I can tell you is that Milosevic, and especially his wife, see the world in Cold-War terms. Friends of hers have described to me how she feels comfortable only in Communist countries, but views India as a longtime associate of the Socialist camp and would probably try to build a relationship on that. By the way, this is no reflection of my views on India, which is a thriving and remarkable democracy and deserves a much higher profile in the West than it currently receives.
Let me also say, that sovereignty is not an absolute. Nations abridge their sovereignty all the time, and one of the key principles to emerge in Twentieth Century Europe is that nations don't have the right to disregard the human rights of their citizens. The war in Kosovo was about how a country can treat its own citisens, and also about regional stability. That is, a country doesn't have the right to destabilize a region just to address a domestic issue.
New York, NY:
Sir:
According to the AP, the Yugoslavian election commission just published its "election results", claiming a 48% vote for Mr. Kostunica and a 40% vote for Mr. Milosevic. However, Mr. Kostunica's supporters say that they have won and will not participate in a runoff. Do you think this could allow Mr. Milosevic to paint a veneer of legality on any re-election runoff? Or do you think that the situation is such that the Yugoslav people will take matters into their own hands?
Gen. Wesley Clark: Tough to predict the outcome right now. The electin commisision wasn't supposed to report its results until tomorrow. But this might be Milosevic's best option, stall for time and call for a second round. This could get ugly, becasue there will be an increase of intimidation by Milosevic's supporters prior to the second round., I suspect that the oposition will take to the streets if they can and make the case more strongly that there is no need for a second round.
Washington, DC: Sir,
Now that you are retired, has either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate shown interest in appointing you to a future cabinet post? Do you have any political aspirations?
Gen. Wesley Clark: I have talked with people in both camps, and have given some thoughts on the military and US foreign policy, especially in Europe. But I'm transitioning now to a career in the private sector. I haven't said no to opportunities for future public service. I believe in public service and there are a lot of interesting challenges in this country. Hopefully, I'll be able to contiue my public service in some way in the future.
Mons, Belgium:
Sir,
Seems like nearly every retired 4 star in the country has come out for Bush. You have not endorsed anyone and I'm wondering why?
Gen. Wesley Clark: I don't feel that retired generals out to be using their titles for political endorsements. I'm happy to speak out on the issues, and would encourage others to do so.
One of the reasons that the military is highly respected in America is because people know that we're non-partisan. But partisan statements by groups of recently retired officers, however well-intentioned, and certainly within their legal rights, still cast a shadow back on the instuitution, raising concerns about the objectivity of military judgments, and eroding trust between ranks in the military. I would hope that we keep the military free of partisan politics, and that retired generals would give the public the benefits of their long careers by professional rather than partisan comment.
washingtonpost.com: Our time is up. Our thanks to Gen. Clark and all the people who submitted questions. Stay up to date on the unfolding power struggle in Yugoslavia in the World section of washingtonpost.com.
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WASHINGTON - Slobodan Milosevic's fall is a huge step forward for peace, democracy and economic growth in Yugoslavia, but it doesn't solve the Western democracies' diplomatic headaches in the Balkans, and in some ways makes them more difficult, diplomats and regional specialists said yesterday.
"This changes the landscape in the Balkans and certainly in the former Yugoslavia," but it also "presents a number of challenges," a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity said yesterday. "We're not short of issues to tackle."
Not least among those challenges is the task of arresting Milosevic under war crimes charges pending before the international tribunal in The Hague. The Clinton administration says it is committed to the prosecution of Milosevic, who made an extraordinary concession speech last night and who many fear will be shielded from international arrest by the new Yugoslav regime.
The main worry is over the Serbian province of Kosovo, where 5,700 U.S. troops are part of a 45,000-strong NATO-led force deployed to keep the peace after Yugoslav troops withdrew in the face of an allied offensive in 1999.
The United States, Britain, France and other Western allies conducted a 78-day bombing campaign against Milosevic's forces after the troops terrorized ethnic Albanians and caused hundreds of thousands of them to flee. NATO's bombing campaign was widely seen as having been waged on behalf of ethnic Albanians, who constitute a majority in Kosovo, and it fueled their hopes for an independent Kosovar nation.
Milosevic's replacement as Yugoslav president by the opposition leader, Vojislav Kostunica, deals a serious and perhaps fatal blow to those hopes.
As long as Milosevic controlled Yugoslavia, ethnic Albanians could hope that the West might eventually countenance Kosovo's secession as a way to undermine Belgrade's power and shelter the area from further abuse by Serbs.
Now, all the major parties - Washington, Europe and Kostunica himself - favor Kosovo's continued participation in Yugoslavia. Western analysts say they fear that ethnic Albanians will shift from seeing NATO forces as their protectors to perceiving them as pro-Serbian, with possibly dangerous consequences for Western troops.
In such a case, ethnic Albanians "may take up arms against us," said Ivo Daalder, a Balkans specialist at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "Our challenge is to make sure the NATO presence, the U.S. presence and the international presence in Kosovo will not become seen in their eyes as the new oppressor."
The only sure way to eliminate that risk would be to simply withdraw U.S. troops now that Milosevic has fallen, but nobody is publicly advocating that course.
Senior U.S. officials and Balkans analysts agreed yesterday that NATO forces must remain not only in Kosovo, for now at least, but also in Bosnia, where Western troops have kept the peace since the mid-1990s.
The 21,000-strong NATO force in Bosnia includes 4,600 U.S. troops.
In Bosnia, "we still need to maintain our forces, because Bosnia can't stand alone," said Kurt Bassuener, a Balkans specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington. "It doesn't have the structures to stand as an independent state."
In Kosovo, policy-makers cited the continuing need to act as peacekeepers between ethnic Albanians and Kosovar Serbs, who are likely to maintain their mutual hatred for years and probably generations.
And they said that Kostunica, for all his apparent devotion to democracy and the rule of law, is an ardent Serbian nationalist whose behavior toward ethnic Albanians is hard to predict. "UNMIC and KFOR will continue," said the Clinton administration official, referring to the acronyms for the NATO and United Nations missions in Kosovo. "This doesn't fundamentally change what's going on in Kosovo."
Even critics of President Clinton's Balkan policies said they supported at least a short-term continued U.S. presence in Kosovo and Bosnia. "I fully expect that the United States and our NATO allies will, for the time being, be called upon to maintain a presence in Kosovo and Bosnia and to help with the reconstruction of Serbia," said Sen. Robert C. Byrd, a West Virginia Democrat. "What I sincerely hope is that the establishment of a democratic government in Yugoslavia will enable the United States to devise a roadmap for extracting U.S. personnel from the Balkans and for turning over future involvement in the Balkans to the Europeans," he said.
Last spring, Byrd co-sponsored a bill to halt financing of U.S. operations in the Balkans after July 1, 2001, unless the president submitted a detailed budget request, subject to congressional debate, and filed a report on how U.S. troops would be replaced by allied forces.
The measure was defeated in May, but not by much.
The vote was 53-47.
Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican presidential nominee, supports at least a near-term U.S. military presence in the Balkans but not necessarily a long-term one, one of his foreign policy advisers, Condoleezza Rice, said yesterday. "Both he and Secretary Cheney have made clear that the American presence in the Balkans should not be interminable," said Rice, who added that the governor opposed the Byrd bill and would not insist on any firm deadline for a withdrawal.
"We have an opportunity to move forward with real progress," not only in Kosovo but also Bosnia, Clark said. In Bosnia, Clark added, "Milosevic's departure reduces the influence and staying power of the [Serbian] hard-liners."
He discounted the possibility that Milosevic's departure could prod a new push by ethnic Albanians for Kosovo's secession.
"There'll always be those who favor independence," Clark said, adding: "The Albanians realize they have a long way to go before independence."
Montenegro, which together with Serbia makes up what is left of the Yugoslav federation, presents another thorny problem for Western policy-makers trying to maintain peace and keep Yugoslavia together.
The Montenegrin leader, Milo Djukanovich, had broken with Milosevic and even changed his republic's official currency to the German Deutschmark.
"Relations between Belgrade and Montenegro have been very strained over the past couple of years," said the Clinton administration official. "Now they have to reassess that relationship."
Much of the hardest diplomatic work in Yugoslavia in coming months and years will involve not dramatic events such as troop deployments or bringing war criminals to justice but the mundane aspects of rebuilding a devastated society - financial aid, institution-building and humanitarian considerations, the official said.
A key component is expected to be the lifting of sanctions against Yugoslavia, which Western leaders are already promising to do.
Asked about U.S. aid, he said, "It's a European country. We will be supportive, but I don't think the United States will be the leading contributor in the reconstruction of Serbia."
Even so, many people inside and outside the U.S. government believe that a trial of Milosevic and other Serbian leaders indicted for war crimes would be a key element in marking a new Yugoslav era.
Retired U.S. Army Gen. George A. Joulwan, Clark's predecessor as NATO commander, said he thinks Milosevic will eventually have his day in court.
"I think the pressure's going to come more and more when Milosevic loses the protection around him," Joulwan said. "Maybe it will take a month or a year."
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