Last update 15 Jan. 2004

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	American Research Group, Inc.
The New Hampshire Poll

December 4, 2003 Dean Increases Lead As Clark Challenges Kerry for Second Place Among Democrats in New Hampshire Receiving a boost from registered Democrats, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean now leads with 45%. Senator John Kerry is at 13% and Wesley Clark is at 11%. Ballot preferences for the six other major candidates remain in single digits. Dean's strength is based on gaining support from registered Democrats. A total of 46% of registered Democrats now say they would vote for Dean, surpassing the 44% of undeclared voters saying they would vote for Dean. These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 430 Democrats (72%) and 170 undeclared voters (28%). The interviews were conducted November 30 through December 3, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. Ballot preference for Dean is up 7 percentage points from two weeks ago as ballot preference for Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points. Ballot Preference - July 2003 through December 3, 2003 Likely Democratic primary voters Dec 3 2003 Nov 20 2003 Nov 5 2003 Oct 2003 Sep 2003 Aug 2003 July 2003 Carol Moseley Braun 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% Wesley Clark 11% 7% 4% 5% 2% 1% 2% Howard Dean 45% 38% 38% 29% 31% 28% 19% John Edwards 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% Dick Gephardt 5% 4% 3% 6% 8% 10% 10% John Kerry 13% 17% 24% 19% 21% 21% 25% Dennis Kucinich 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% Joe Lieberman 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 6% Al Sharpton 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Undecided 15% 21% 21% 29% 27% 32% 30%   Ballot Preference - January 2003 through June 2003 Likely Democratic primary voters June 2003 May 2003 April 2003 Mar 2003 Feb 2003 Jan 2003 Carol Moseley Braun 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% NI Wesley Clark 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% Howard Dean 18% 19% 19% 22% 16% 15% John Edwards 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% Dick Gephardt 10% 12% 15% 15% 15% 5% Bob Graham 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% John Kerry 28% 26% 24% 23% 23% 27% Dennis Kucinich 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% NI Joe Lieberman 11% 12% 13% 12% 10% 6% Al Sharpton 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Undecided 23% 20% 19% 20% 27% 39% NI = Not included Dean, with a 69% favorable rating, continues to lead in favorability. Joe Lieberman's favorable rating has increased 9 percentage points in 2 weeks, but that increase has not had any impact on his ballot preference.  Awareness and favorability Aware Favorable Unfavorable Undecided Carol Moseley Braun: Dec 3 2003 65% 21% 15% 29% Nov 20 2003 62% 18% 17% 27% Nov 5 2003 61% 19% 15% 27% Oct 2003 59% 17% 10% 32% Sep 2003 60% 23% 15% 22% Aug 2003 60% 19% 16% 25% July 2003 58% 11% 13% 34% June 2003 57% 17% 17% 23% May 2003 53% 15% 13% 25% Apr 2003 53% 15% 17% 21% Mar 2003 58% 16% 13% 29% Feb 2003 60% 20% 10% 30% Wesley Clark: Dec 3 2003 96% 43% 12% 41% Nov 20 2003 95% 44% 13% 38% Nov 5 2003 89% 38% 16% 35% Oct 2003 90% 34% 10% 46% Sep 2003 70% 22% 5% 43% Aug 2003 47% 16% 8% 23% July 2003 39% 16% 2% 21% June 2003 46% 13% 2% 31% May 2003 39% 13% 2% 24% Apr 2003 33% 14% 4% 15% Mar 2003 30% 10% 2% 18% Feb 2003 27% 6% 4% 17% Jan 2003 14% 2% 0% 12% Nov 2002 11% 1% 0% 10% Howard Dean: Dec 3 2003 99% 69% 7% 23% Nov 20 2003 100% 71% 11% 18% Nov 5 2003 100% 67% 8% 25% Oct 2003 98% 63% 12% 23% Sep 2003 99% 66% 9% 24% Aug 2003 98% 63% 7% 28% July 2003 97% 57% 10% 30% June 2003 85% 46% 9% 30% May 2003 81% 45% 11% 25% Apr 2003 75% 43% 10% 22% Mar 2003 74% 40% 9% 25% Feb 2003 75% 33% 12% 29% Jan 2003 64% 30% 4% 30% Nov 2002 45% 29% 2% 14% John Edwards: Dec 3 2003 94% 42% 18% 34% Nov 20 2003 92% 36% 17% 39% Nov 5 2003 93% 33% 18% 42% Oct 2003 85% 32% 17% 36% Sep 2003 83% 30% 12% 41% Aug 2003 86% 25% 16% 45% July 2003 75% 25% 15% 35% June 2003 70% 24% 8% 38% May 2003 65% 21% 7% 37% Apr 2003 64% 18% 9% 37% Mar 2003 64% 19% 8% 37% Feb 2003 58% 17% 5% 36% Jan 2003 59% 24% 4% 31% Nov 2002 20% 5% 4% 11% Dick Gephardt: Dec 3 2003 100% 51% 22% 27% Nov 20 2003 100% 50% 20% 30% Nov 5 2003 100% 52% 22% 26% Oct 2003 100% 49% 19% 32% Sep 2003 100% 50% 18% 32% Aug 2003 100% 47% 16% 37% July 2003 100% 51% 19% 30% June 2003 98% 55% 14% 29% May 2003 97% 50% 16% 31% Apr 2003 97% 53% 16% 28% Mar 2003 100% 50% 19% 31% Feb 2003 98% 49% 21% 28% Jan 2003 97% 54% 20% 23% Nov 2002 92% 35% 22% 35% John Kerry: Dec 3 2003 97% 57% 18% 22% Nov 20 2003 99% 61% 19% 19% Nov 5 2003 96% 66% 12% 18% Oct 2003 96% 63% 14% 19% Sep 2003 98% 64% 13% 21% Aug 2003 98% 61% 5% 32% July 2003 100% 66% 13% 21% June 2003 92% 69% 10% 13% May 2003 92% 65% 11% 16% Apr 2003 87% 65% 10% 12% Mar 2003 90% 69% 7% 14% Feb 2003 87% 61% 8% 18% Jan 2003 91% 61% 5% 25% Nov 2002 80% 44% 7% 29% Dennis Kucinich: Dec 3 2003 70% 23% 17% 30% Nov 20 2003 68% 20% 18% 30% Nov 5 2003 63% 18% 14% 31% Oct 2003 58% 17% 12% 29% Sep 2003 60% 12% 18% 30% Aug 2003 61% 18% 19% 24% July 2003 56% 11% 16% 29% June 2003 46% 13% 6% 27% May 2003 24% 6% 7% 11% Apr 2003 32% 8% 9% 15% Mar 2003 21% 6% 9% 6% Feb 2003 13% 2% 4% 7% Joe Lieberman: Dec 3 2003 100% 43% 38% 19% Nov 20 2003 100% 34% 35% 31% Nov 5 2003 100% 33% 38% 29% Oct 2003 100% 39% 31% 30% Sep 2003 100% 33% 33% 34% Aug 2003 100% 33% 37% 30% July 2003 100% 49% 18% 33% June 2003 100% 46% 20% 34% May 2003 100% 55% 16% 29% Apr 2003 100% 56% 19% 25% Mar 2003 100% 51% 28% 21% Feb 2003 100% 55% 23% 22% Jan 2003 100% 61% 19% 20% Nov 2002 99% 42% 20% 37% Al Sharpton: Dec 3 2003 85% 15% 46% 24% Nov 20 2003 83% 11% 50% 22% Nov 5 2003 85% 9% 53% 23% Oct 2003 82% 12% 50% 20% Sep 2003 84% 12% 59% 13% Aug 2003 80% 9% 58% 13% July 2003 79% 11% 41% 27% June 2003 79% 11% 46% 22% May 2003 79% 7% 45% 27% Apr 2003 79% 10% 48% 21% Mar 2003 71% 8% 43% 20% Feb 2003 76% 5% 54% 17% Jan 2003 66% 5% 40% 21% Nov 2002 63% 1% 33% 29% Of the 15% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided in their preference for president, 78% have a favorable opinion of Dean, 56% have a favorable opinion of Kerry, and 44% have a favorable opinion of Clark. Of the 45% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they would vote for Dean, 55% have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 41% have a favorable opinion of Clark. Of the 69% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they have a favorable opinion of Dean, 57% have a favorable opinion of Kerry. Also, among that 69%, 62% say they would vote for Dean, 7% say they would vote for Kerry, and 6% say they would vote for Clark.  About this survey: Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The New Hampshire Poll has been conducting surveys of voters in New Hampshire since 1976. Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary election on January 27. This sample included 430 registered Democrats (70%) and 170 undeclared voters (28%). Sample Dates: November 30-December 3, 2003 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. Question wording: I'm going to read a list of names associated with running for president and I'd like you to tell me if you have ever heard of them before. The first name is (READ FROM BELOW). Have you ever heard of (NAME) before? IF AWARE, ASK: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (NAME)? (NAMES ROTATED) Carol Moseley Braun Wesley Clark Howard Dean John Edwards Dick Gephardt John Kerry Dennis Kucinich Joe Lieberman Al Sharpton If the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary were being held today between Carol Moseley Braun, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, or Al Sharpton, for whom would you vote? (NAMES ROTATED) NH Poll  |  ARG home